Tesla Pick up reveal tonight at 8pm. Post your thoughts here...

luthj

Engineer In Residence
Honestly I would rather the CEO be so busy with amazing stuff behind the scenes, that they don't have time to do flawless presentations. Something about 10 years ahead in battery tech, and 5 years in motors?

I really don't like the steering wheel though.
 

docwatson

Adventurer
Honestly I would rather the CEO be so busy with amazing stuff behind the scenes, that they don't have time to do flawless presentations. Something about 10 years ahead in battery tech, and 5 years in motors?
How did you come by those numbers? Best I can find is one German guys says 4-5 years advantage.

This may be crazy but you don't need the CEO to be there to test the window. Call me crazy but I think if someone is going to get up on stage and say this window is "transparent metal" it shouldn't shatter like that.

Good news though, they have two years to fix it.
 

luthj

Engineer In Residence
Telsa's current battery tech is about 4-5 years ahead. They started investing mega bux in batteries about 7 years ago. The current stuff in the pipeline for production in 2020 and 2021 is *supposedly* another big jump. I have read a few of the papers by the lead battery guy at Tesla, and its very cool stuff. For example, the research into electrode changes, and electrolyte mixes was painstakingly slow. To work around this problem, they took a wide guess at what changes and compounds would produce positive changes. Then they built a brute force battery tester. They took thousands of batteries, and put them on rapid 24/7/365 automated battery testers. Instead of trying to understand the exact chemistry as scientists are apt to do, they started thinking more like engineers. Maximum results with minimal time. It paid off supposedly, higher capacity and significant cycle life improvements.

Obviously this will have to be borne out in real world testing. The other big auto MFGs are starting to step up their game. So the gap may close quickly. More competition is good though, I look forward to array of options in the next 10 years or so.
 

JaSAn

Active member
1. would you buy one ?
2. and if you are even thinking of maybe doing that in the not too distant future, what would it take to make you a believer....to make you write that big check?
to answer your questions:

1. No. Reasons:
a - won't work for me as my only vehicle. I can't afford a second vehicle to drive when a Tesla won't.
b - my FWC Grandby will not fit on it and I can't afford a new camper.
c - I'm not usually a early tech adopter. I wait for early suckers buyers to be the beta testers and work out problems.
d - I want an 8' bed and standard cab, don't need seating for 5 nor a longer wheelbase.

2. - First they have to improve cold weather performance.
- Second there needs to be a few years of real world driving experience to sort out issues.
- Third, they have to be around long enough to have a good resale market, won't buy new.

And why, oh why do they have to make these things look like a refugee from a bad science fiction movie.

jim
 

spectre6000

Observer
A considered take:

In my pocket and in my lap under my clacking fingers you'll find the results of a well known but relatively niche brand making a genre shattering product. When the iPhone came out in 2007, the overall trend was for phones to be as small as possible, and mostly fold in half. There was a Futurama bit about it back around 2004 where one character (Amy for my fellow Futurama fans) had a giant charger for her nearly microscopic phone; this was the "future" in 2004. Then the iPhone came out. It was neither small, nor did it fold in half. It looked like a big melted bar of soap, and where were the buttons? Now, flip phones are a punchline, all phones are buttonless, and for some inexplicable reason they keep getting bigger. When Apple went from the black/white polycarbonate MacBooks to the aluminum MacBooks, the nay-saying was similar for a variety of reasons now forgotten, but now even the cheapest laptops are all aluminum. Both were odd and rather jarring products from an otherwise aspirational brand, and now they're just background noise.

The Tesla Model S has consistently been rated the most aspirational cars for the last several years. Everyone wants one. In a similar manner to the buttonless slab phones, it seems every car with any luxury angle has a giant and ever larger screen growing in the center of the dash, sticking out like an iPad (example three, but that one is not on my person) stapled to the console. Every automotive manufacturer on the planet is rushing to get an electric niche filler to market (GM announced their electric truck for 2021/2? just a few hours before the Tesla reveal). If Tesla makes a truck, it's likely to follow the same script as Apple making some electronic widget we didn't think we needed yet will all have in a few years. The looks of this thing are totally polarizing, and a lot of what we traditionally think of as a "truck" is challenged. It's entirely possible it's too much of a challenge, but if the past is any indicator I expect to see them on the road soon, and then stop seeing them shortly after in the same way I don't see Rav4s (they still make those right? If not, insert any other generic cute-ute).

As for the machine itself... Electric propulsion makes a lot of sense for a truck for the same reason a diesel does; lots of torque way down low. What about the range? If I'm going on a road trip that requires some real range, I don't think a truck would be my first choice. A working vehicle goes to the gettin' place or the job site, and back again. It's not going far, it just needs to move stuff. Range is less of an issue with a truck than a car, and the car is commonplace. Someone said something about it not being utilitarian... Are you kidding? There's nothing on there that ISN'T strictly utilitarian including curves. I imagine the angular shape probably has something to do with the working properties of the stainless steel alloy; it may be extremely expensive to get the degree of curves required for your typical automotive body panel. It seats six, there's nothing on the dash but that iPad-style display, the doors are conventional... The glass roof is a Tesla hallmark, so it was expected, and I don't know what's going on with the wheels, but those are about the only non-utilitarian details on the whole truck!

I think it'll likely succeed. I think it'll succeed pretty hard actually... It probably won't be long before other manufacturers are getting in on the angular wedge design game, or the stainless steel bodywork game, or who knows what other aspect of it people will latch onto. I've been aware of this for a while and wondered what it'd look like. I'm not going to go so far as to say I wish I hadn't put a deposit down on my diesel Bison a month or so ago, but my next truck will very likely look much more like this than not.
 

shade

Well-known member
I dunno... they didn't consider the federal rules mandating side rear view mirrors
That's a minor change compared to significantly altering the structure.

Telsa's current battery tech is about 4-5 years ahead. They started investing mega bux in batteries about 7 years ago. The current stuff in the pipeline for production in 2020 and 2021 is *supposedly* another big jump. I have read a few of the papers by the lead battery guy at Tesla, and its very cool stuff. For example, the research into electrode changes, and electrolyte mixes was painstakingly slow. To work around this problem, they took a wide guess at what changes and compounds would produce positive changes. Then they built a brute force battery tester. They took thousands of batteries, and put them on rapid 24/7/365 automated battery testers. Instead of trying to understand the exact chemistry as scientists are apt to do, they started thinking more like engineers. Maximum results with minimal time. It paid off supposedly, higher capacity and significant cycle life improvements.

Obviously this will have to be borne out in real world testing. The other big auto MFGs are starting to step up their game. So the gap may close quickly. More competition is good though, I look forward to array of options in the next 10 years or so.
The Edison method. I believe that was used to find better incandescent bulb filaments. It's a good fit for batteries, too.
 

luthj

Engineer In Residence

A specific cell (below image) had 97% capacity retention after 5,300 cycles.
😯
 

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Louisd75

Adventurer
By the time the truck is actually in production side view cameras will be legal replacements for mirrors.
Doubtful. It's a fed requirement but it's also a requirement pretty much everywhere. For example, WA state says:

RCW 46.37.400
Mirrors, backup devices.

(1) Every motor vehicle shall be equipped with a mirror mounted on the left side of the vehicle and so located to reflect to the driver a view of the highway for a distance of at least two hundred feet to the rear of such vehicle.

There are no exemptions or exceptions for cameras. Tesla has been fighting this on the federal level since at least 2013.
 

shade

Well-known member

shade

Well-known member
Doubtful. It's a fed requirement but it's also a requirement pretty much everywhere. For example, WA state says:

RCW 46.37.400
Mirrors, backup devices.

(1) Every motor vehicle shall be equipped with a mirror mounted on the left side of the vehicle and so located to reflect to the driver a view of the highway for a distance of at least two hundred feet to the rear of such vehicle.

There are no exemptions or exceptions for cameras. Tesla has been fighting this on the federal level since at least 2013.
I agree. While replacement with cameras/screens may eventually come to pass, I don't think it'll happen in the next two years. I'd say the lack of mirrors had more to do with it being a concept car than anything else, and Tesla wouldn't miss an opportunity to promote mirrorless designs.
 

luthj

Engineer In Residence
Apparently they are already shipping one variant of the enhanced chemistry in their powerwalls. That's how they are getting such low bids for big grid batteries.
 

Louisd75

Adventurer
1. would you buy one ?
2. and if you are even thinking of maybe doing that in the not too distant future, what would it take to make you a believer....to make you write that big check?


1. No. I don't like how it looks and it won't fit in my garage. I think that the picture above showing the comparison with an F150 is a pretty good indication that this thing is huge. I have problems with parking spots around town in a Toyota Tacoma. I've also noticed that all of the EV charging stations in town are compact spots.

2. Make it smaller.
Make it better looking.
Improve the visibility outside. I drive for enjoyment, not for a commute and I want to see what's going on outside.
Get rid of the massive touch screen console, give me a traditional instrument cluster.
Double the range.
 

crazysccrmd

Observer
Doubtful. It's a fed requirement but it's also a requirement pretty much everywhere. For example, WA state says:

RCW 46.37.400
Mirrors, backup devices.

(1) Every motor vehicle shall be equipped with a mirror mounted on the left side of the vehicle and so located to reflect to the driver a view of the highway for a distance of at least two hundred feet to the rear of such vehicle.

There are no exemptions or exceptions for cameras. Tesla has been fighting this on the federal level since at least 2013.
About a month ago the NHTSA opened a comment period on allowing side mirrors to be replaced with cameras. I think regulation will change in the next couple of years, especially with the advance in camera and display technologies and with it already being implemented successfully in other countries.
 
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